Wobbly Wednesday – Virus Surge Worries Markets

by - June 24th, 2020 8:01 am

Donald Trump's Helicopter Walk After Rally Becomes Meme | PEOPLE.com2,347,102 infected Americans.

Will we even make it to November so we can choose 4 more years of this nightmare?  121,225 Americans are dead out of 477,807 worldwide – only Brazil is close to us with 52,645 dead in their country – clearly not as "great" as ours has been made.  Trump has been calling the virus "Kung Flu", which both attaches it to China (in a racist fashion) and diminishes the toll it is taking on the people of this country who are suffering and dying under his watch.  Well played sir! 

While the Chinese (84,653 infections, 4,640 deaths) are able to travel to Europe and the US, Americans may soon not be able to travel to China or to Europe as both Governments are considering banning US travelers from entering their countries and will at least require 2-week quarantines for those that do wish to escape our disease-ridden nation.  That's as of July 1st folks, so you'd better take that summer vacation quickly.

Trump Puppet Putin | Envisioning The American DreamIn 3.5 years, America has become isolated and unloved, with soaring debts and monstrous unemployment.  We have far less trade, riots in the streets and our life expectancy is crashing as fast as the stock market is rising.  Putin could not possibly be prouder, could he?  

President Trump, as well as his Russian and Brazilian counterparts have followed what critics call a comparable path in their pandemic response that leaves all three countries in a similarly bad spot: they were dismissive at the outset of the crisis, slow to respond to scientific advice and saw a boom of domestic cases as other parts of the world, notably in Europe and Asia, were slowly managing to get their outbreaks under control.

This morning, the stock market kind of cares about the virus and we're down a bit in the Futures.  Joe Biden is up a bit in the polls (50% to 36% Trump and 14% can't seem to make up their minds) so at least things will be interesting going into the election and perhaps Trump's strategy is to have a viral emergency and postpone the election until Don Jr…
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    DClark41

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    Corleone

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    IHS4GOD

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    Aclend

  • SPY/Phil, I took a big swing on January 26th following your advice to another member and bought 1615 contracts of Mar 185/190 BCS on SPY that will expire ITM today paying $290,700 on the $500k bet. I thought it might be fun to see what a winning trade looks like. Great call on your part and looking back it seems pretty obvious.

    Sibe14 (premium)

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    Rookie IRA Investor

  • Personally I admire and respect you disciplined approach to investing. My style is at the extreme side of aggressive and I have to learn how to be less that way. If I yell " Let it Ride" at my house, no one says a word so I can't use that to temper my behavior. Phil has done a pretty good job of knocking some of my potential moves and as a result, I have increased my portfolio value by almost 25% since late July.

    DoubleD

  • Phil - I know I am small change compared to most others members, but I just wanted to let you know that during the last two weeks with the shorts you and others suggested I have 6 winners and 5 losers. My losers were small because I tried to follow your guidelines as best I could. On the other hand my winners on average were around 50%. Consequently, I am up $2000 in 14 days. Thank you for your patience and help. I think I am making progress getting rid of some of my poor trading habits of the past!

    DCalrk41

  • Thanks for the oil tip Phil: Bot & sold the USO May 29 calls for net $125. Not bad for few minutes work.

    JWick1981

  • Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!

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    Jr Mints

  • Phil – great calls this past week, esp. friday and monday. in the old days I would have let Prechter et al scare me into trimming my longs and going short at just the wrong time. your feel for the markets is Tiger-esque. CHK, HOV, BX, TLT and XLF are big winners for me today. My biggest up day in a long time. Thanks!

    Terrapin22

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    Mjjwo9b

  • Thanks for the USO mention, Phil, 140% on my USO lottery ticket in 12 hours, and no hesitation in taking the money and running — you have trained us well. Sometimes it's teaching, but with this kind of stuff, where you get whipped like a dog if you let 250% profit melt away, it's definitely training. Happy Fourth!!!

    Zeroxzero

  • I read with great interest your statement the other day that the DX is unlikely to break 76 or there will be great hell to pay, torrential amounts of tears shed, and gnashing of dentures all over the world. Well. I have had several short DX contracts in the $78ish range during the last month and upon your two statements 1) don't be greedy, and 2) 76 could be a bottom, I yesterday put a buy GTC order to close my positions at 76 and for some inexplicable reason the DX spiked down after the close and now I can safely say that once again you have confirmed for me that you have been one of the best investment services I have yet to come across. Almost to the point that I'm beginning to think that maybe I'm completely wrong about my political stance as well. Almost. In any event, I wanted you to know that this has been my third execution based on your comments and recommendations that I have followed and this one has also worked to my advantage. My subscription fee has been more than justified for the next year and there's some left over to pay for my stay in Toronto this week, dinner at Joso's in the Yorkville section of town. If I smoked I'd have a Montecristo to salute you. Be well, stay well.

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  • Well I want to thank P. Davis for his style and for the fact that he affirmed my thoughts for a correction. He was right and his confirmation of my bias saved me thousands. Mr. Davis is amoral when it comes to money. He realizes the poor are screwed but we must fight to win. A measure of sarcasm and dark humour and it is great reading. 100% right on the correction.

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    Smasher

  • Thanks Phil, I have adjusted my position by getting rid of the IYF puts, and selling the FAZ puts. You have so many of these awesome little tricks in your playbook that it really amazes me. I toally love your analogy by the way: Do you want insurance that you have to pay for, or do you want insurance that pays you?

    Craigzooka

  • Looking over your main themes last week, the "China may fall first" and "if you missed it previously, Thurs am gives you a second chance to short" were absolutely on target. I had to rely on stop-losses because of my schedule but just those two calls could have been worth a small fortune. Keep it up and I look forward to your new portfolio.

    Ocelli

  • GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

    Winston

  • Fed days are fun! Just for grins I decided to see how much money I could make in two clicks. I bought DIA calls right when the surge started and then sold them the minute they hit my account. Net gain of 20% in 20 seconds. Can't do that very often…

    MrMocha

  • PHIL: The most important lesson I have learned is how to hedge using SQQQ, SDS and TZA. A big thanks.

    IHS4God

How the Federal Reserve literally makes money

by - June 23rd, 2020 9:03 pm

 

How the Federal Reserve literally makes money

The Fed is ‘making’ a lot of money. Alex Wong/Getty Images

Courtesy of William J. Luther, Florida Atlantic University

The Federal Reserve has vowed to provide up to US$2.3 trillion in lending to support households, employers, financial markets and state and local governments struggling as a result of the coronavirus and corresponding stay-at-home orders.

Let that number sink in: $2,300,000,000,000.

I have a Ph.D. in economics, direct the Sound Money Project at the American Institute for Economic Research and write regularly on Federal Reserve policy. And, yet, it is difficult for me to wrap my head around a number that large. If you were to stack 2.3 trillion $1 bills, it would reach over halfway to the Moon.

Put simply, it is a lot of money. Where does it all come from?

Unlike the trillions of dollars the Treasury is spending to save the economy by bailing out companies or beefing up unemployment checks, very little of the Fed’s money actually comes from taxpayers or sales of government bonds. Most of it, in fact, emerges right out of thin air. And that has costs.

Printing green

It is common to hear people say the Fed prints money.

That’s not technically correct. The Bureau of Engraving and Printing, an agency of the U.S. Treasury, does the printing. The Fed, for its part, purchases cash from the bureau at cost and then puts it in circulation.

Although you may have heard some economists talk about the Fed figuratively dropping cash from helicopters, its method of distribution isn’t quite as colorful. Instead, it gives banks cash in exchange for old, worn-out notes or digital balances held by the banks at the Fed. In this way, the Fed can help banks accommodate changes in demand for banknotes, like those in advance of major holidays or after natural disasters.

These exchanges are dollar-for-dollar swaps. The Fed does not typically increase the monetary base – the total amount of currency in circulation and reserves held by banks at the central bank – when…
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Testy Tuesday – S&P 3,135 Yet Again

by - June 23rd, 2020 8:33 am

"Baby here we stand again

Where we've been so many times before

Even though you looked so sure

As I was watching you walking out my door

But you always walk back in like you did today

Acting like you never even went away

Well I don't know if I can

Open up and let you in baby

Here come those tears

Here come those tears again" – Jackson Browne 

That's right it's Tuesday so the S&P must be testing the 10% line and last Tuesday we failed but the Tuesday before that we popped over so it's a real coin flip this morning.

Things are looking good so far because those 30M unemployed people are still getting their $600 WEEKLY bonus checks ($18Bn/week, $72Bn/month) and those will last until July 31st and that has kept the economy from totally collapsing and has kept Consumer Spending at reasonable levels at the Bottom 25% of wage earners are now outspending the Top 25% relative to where they were before the crisis.  

Pumping an annualized $864Bn into bonus checks for the Unemployed is 5% of the GDP we're adding and that's making all those economic numbers look much better than they are, not to mention the base $15Bn a week of regular unemployment benerfits that are being handed out – that's another annualized $780Bn (4% of GDP).

Then we add in the $1,200 stimulus checks for 170M tax filers ($204Bn) and $500 for 50M dependents ($25Bn) and that's another $229Bn in Q2 is an annualized $916Bn (5% of GDP) so this economic bounce is here because we spent…
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Where We Go from Here

by - June 22nd, 2020 8:41 pm

 

Where We Go from Here

Courtesy of John Mauldin

Predictions are difficult, especially those about the future. That old proverb (often attributed to Yogi Berra) is right but you can’t live without making certain presumptions. You presume your car will start, your refrigerator will stay cold, the lights will turn on when you flip the switch.

In fact, you could argue this “predictability” separates advanced economies from primitive ones. Most of us don’t have to worry about being attacked in our sleep or having food tomorrow. That security frees us to do other things.

Right now, some basic assumptions are no longer safe. The economy will keep suffering until they are reliable again, or we replace them with new assumptions. We can’t travel or even go to a restaurant or visit friends without wondering about our health. Where does that leave us?

Today I’ll defy the proverb, consider what we know and don’t know, and try to tell you where I think we’re going. In the long run (after The Great Reset in the late 2020s), I still foresee a wonderful new world. But we have to get there first.

Economists use the word “recovery” to define a rebound from the previous time period. So if there was a 30% drop, a 10% increase would, for an economist, be a “recovery.” But in the real world, it still means you are 20% below where you started. Recovery doesn’t necessarily mean recovered. Even optimistic projections say we won’t see anything like 2019 GDP until late 2021. Many suggest it will be even longer.

Even then, the changes we will have to put into our operating business models, not to mention the massive amounts of capital that it will take to start new businesses or resupply old ones, will make the “recovered” economy look significantly different than that of 2019.

And just for the record, because I am not optimistic about the speed of economic recovery does not mean that I am necessarily bearish on the stock market. When the Federal Reserve pumps $5 trillion (or whatever) into the system it is going to find a home. While I think earnings will take a severe hit in 2021, the market could hold…
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Monday Market Movement – Futures Can’t Hold Gains

by - June 22nd, 2020 10:03 am

First you go low on high volume, then you go high on low volume.

That's one of the tricks "THEY" do when "THEY" want to reel in retail suckers to take stocks off their hands at high prices.  Keep the headliners like Apple (AAPL) rolling up the market while doing massive selling like we saw into Friday's close – a 100-point drop in the S&P 500 (3.2%) during the trading session but then a 60-point "recovery" when the markets closed and there was no volume – a time when it's MUCH easier to manipulate the markets, as well as the news.

Yes, we used to only have to worry about fake Financial News, the kind Jim Cramer boasts about routinely placing in this video.  As Cramer says, if you are running a hedge fund and you are not manipulating the markets – you're just not doing your job.  If you think that's not true today – just look at that action on the S&P and read the headlines of SOME papers and you tell me if we're still being manipulated or not.

ImageDoes what you hear about the markets and the economy make sense when you walk on empty streets and eat in empty restaurants?  Will it makes sense when we get those quarterly reports for Q2?  Does it make sense when you look at the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now forecast, that shows Q2 (the one we just finishing next week) GDP is projected to be DOWN 45.5%. 

I know not all of you are Economists but I'll save you 2 years of graduate school by saying down 45.5% is BAD!  What's also bad is that the average range of pundits is more like -35% so the public is in for a big disappointment if the Atlanta Fed is right and the random idiot on TV is wrong.

We get the final GDP Report for Q1 on Thursday (8:30) and that will be down 5% with Consumer Spending down 6.8% and that only reflects the last two weeks of March when we were locked up (hey, Trump did it, he locked us up like he promised!).  If we were down about 50% for two weeks and the other 10 weeks of the quarter we…
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“Inequality is the defining feature of our economy today”

by - June 21st, 2020 8:42 pm

 

“Inequality is the defining feature of our economy today”

Courtesy of 

This weekend’s Barron’s cover story by Reshma Kapadia looks at widening economic inequality that, at some point, will have major investing and taxation consequences for the investor class and Corporate America. The pandemic and related lockdowns took an already ailing situation and made it even worse. 40% of the people who’ve lost their jobs this year earn $40,000 or less. Only 13% of those making over $100,000 have been laid off.

Recoveries for the stock and bond market do not do much for nine of ten households, at least not in the near term. Having a 401(k) with exposure to the stock market is nice for middle class families, but it doesn’t change the need to spend almost everything else that’s coming in each month. Federal Reserve policies that focus on the reflation of business / real estate valuations and asset prices may mean well, but they feed into the disparity between those who can save and invest and those who can’t. There are many other factors at work though – from race to intergenerational wealth transfer to the deification of “shareholder value” to technological disruption.

Eventually, if this trend doesn’t reverse itself, legislators will step in – with all sorts of unintended consequences playing out.

Barron’s asks economists and asset managers about the investment implications of this growing, underlying risk. Hit the link below to read the whole thing.

Why the Widening Wealth Gap Is Bad News for Everyone (Barron’s)

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Zero Hedge

Houston Official Warns ICU Beds '97% Full' As Florida, Cali Report New COVID-19 Records: Live Updates

June 24th, 2020 8:19 pm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • Italy reports negative deaths for first time after revision
  • NY to delay reopening of gyms, movie theaters in some areas
  • Northeastern states order visitors to quarantine
  • Houston ICU units at 97% capacity
  • Arizona reports drop in new cases
  • Fla. reports jump in new cases
  • More counties in Fla. move to require facemasks
  • NYC beaches will reopen in July
  • 2020 NYC Marathon cancelled
  • Cali posts new record for daily cases...


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The Technical Traders

Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Miners, Oil, Bitcoin

June 24th, 2020 7:29 pm

Courtesy of Technical Traders

 

 

 

 

 

 

Get our Active ETF Swing Trade Signals or if you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Lo...



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Phil's Favorites

You can't undrop the bomb

June 24th, 2020 6:30 pm

 

You can’t undrop the bomb

Courtesy of 

Things are different now.

They started to change in 2008, when Congress and the Federal Reserve threw unprecedented money at the economy to keep it from collapsing.

They’ve done it again this year, with even more money. Trillions and trillions of dollars. It was a huge debate in 2008. It’s much less controversial today.

My theory is that once a new kind of stimulus is tasted it becomes a permanent feature of how downturns are handled.

This isn’t about the technical details of stimulus.

...

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ValueWalk

Activists Call To Withdraw Policy that Lets Private Equity "Loot" Retirement Savers

June 24th, 2020 12:08 pm

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Advocates for Workers and Investors Call on Labor Department to Withdraw Policy that Lets Private Equity Loot Retirement Savers

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Washington, DC – Nineteen organizations and individuals that advocate on behalf of consumers, workers, investors and retirees have called on the Department of Labor to withdraw its controversial policy statement opening the door to private equity investments in 401(k) plans.

Retirement Savers Are Being Locked Into Unnecessarily Complex Investments

In a June 24 letter to Se...



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Biotech/COVID-19

April Pot Sales Grew Like A Weed During Lockdowns

June 23rd, 2020 7:10 pm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

The rise in cannabis demand in March was not just an anomaly but continued into April. It appears Americans were getting high during lockdowns to cope with pandemic stress. 

Bloomberg, citing data from BDS Analytics, said cannabis sales erupted in April as dispensaries in many legal states were declared essential businesses. 

On a year-over-year basis, April pot sales in Maryland doubled, sales in Arizona rose 49%, Oregon saw +40%, Colorado +8%, and California +4%. However, Nevada reported a 30% decline for the month due to a collapse in the travel and tourism industry, or mainly because Vegas was cl...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq Could Rally 15% More, Before Hitting This Target?

June 23rd, 2020 9:44 am

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one thing is true about this crazy bull market, it’s that technology stocks have been the clear leader (and winner).

Even the coronavirus crash didn’t knock out the tech sector.

The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 have come racing back and are the only major US stock market indices to make new highs.

Looking at today’s chart, it’s clear that investors continue to rotate funds to large-cap technology stocks on any broad market weakness.

So how much further could this rally “leg” go (on a longer-term basis)? The “monthly” chart above uses the 2000 high and 2002 low at each (1) to highlight key Fibonacci extension price targets....



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Chart School

Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?

June 15th, 2020 3:30 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Jesse Livermore said we consider all matters concerning the market, this includes demand and supply fundamentals, general conditions and price patterns.

A high US dollar is the mighty destroyer of all, it explodes foreign debt and?risk assets, and it will likely change US politics.


The chart below supports a greater supply of US dollars and a bearish dollar view.


The green line is the spread between the German 10 yr interest rate versus the US 10 yr interest rates, and it is showing bearish pressure on the US dollar. The black line is the trend of the US twin deficits and the US dollar as followed this trend over a very long time and the forecast is for deeper deficits into 2020-22.

The red line i...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

June 14th, 2020 5:52 pm

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

May 18th, 2020 7:03 pm

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

May 16th, 2020 1:51 pm

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

April 3rd, 2020 12:00 am

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

February 26th, 2020 12:21 am

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

July 24th, 2019 8:35 am

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.


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